China NBS Manufacturing PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Latest Release:

Big Surprise:

CNY-0.8

CNY

Actual:

Forecast: 49.8

Previous/Revision:

50.5

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast:

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the level of manufacturing activity in the Chinese economy. It is a key indicator assessing production, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times, where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 suggests contraction, making it a crucial national-level economic metric.

Frequency

The China NBS Manufacturing PMI is released monthly, typically at the beginning of the month, and is generally considered a preliminary estimate reflecting the most current manufacturing conditions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders care about the NBS Manufacturing PMI because it is a leading indicator of economic health, affecting the Chinese yuan and global financial markets. A higher PMI suggests economic expansion, which is bullish for the yuan and Chinese equities, whereas a lower PMI might lead to bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

The NBS Manufacturing PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, collecting data on variables like output, new orders, and employment levels. It utilizes a diffusion index, where responses are weighted to compile the overall PMI reading, offering an approximately real-time snapshot of the manufacturing sector's health.

Description

The NBS Manufacturing PMI provides early signals on industry trends, and its preliminary nature means it receives significant attention as markets quickly react to the provided data. While preliminary figures might be revised in later releases, these revisions tend to be less market-moving as most reactions have already occurred. The index is reported on a month-over-month basis, enabling timely detection of shifts in manufacturing dynamics, with YoY comparisons often disregarded due to their longer view and potential seasonality effects.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic indicator, the NBS Manufacturing PMI offers insights into future economic performance, given manufacturing's substantial role in the Chinese economy. The PMI can also be compared with global counterparts like the US ISM Manufacturing PMI to gauge international manufacturing trends and economic momentum.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Currency, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Currency, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 30, 2025	49	49.8	50.5	-0.8
Mar 31, 2025	50.5	50.5	50.2
Mar 01, 2025	50.2	49.9	49.1	0.3
Jan 27, 2025	49.1	50.1	50.1	-1
Dec 31, 2024	50.1	50.3	50.3	-0.2
Nov 30, 2024	50.3	50.3	50.1
Oct 31, 2024	50.1	50	49.8	0.1
Sep 30, 2024	49.8	49.5	49.1	0.3
Aug 31, 2024	49.1	49.5	49.4	-0.4
Jul 31, 2024	49.4	49.3	49.5	0.1
Jun 30, 2024	49.5	49.5	49.5
May 31, 2024	49.5	50.5	50.4	-1
Apr 30, 2024	50.4	50.3	50.8	0.1
Mar 31, 2024	50.8	49.9	49.1	0.9
Mar 01, 2024	49.1	49.1	49.2
Jan 31, 2024	49.2	49.2	49
Dec 31, 2023	49	49.5	49.4	-0.5
Nov 30, 2023	49.4	49.7	49.5	-0.3
Oct 31, 2023	49.5	50.2	50.2	-0.7
Sep 30, 2023	50.2	50	49.7	0.2
Aug 31, 2023	49.7	49.4	49.3	0.3
Jul 31, 2023	49.3	49.2	49	0.1
Jun 30, 2023	49	49	48.8
May 31, 2023	48.8	49.4	49.2	-0.6
Apr 30, 2023	49.2	51.4	51.9	-2.2
Mar 31, 2023	51.9	51.5	52.6	0.4
Mar 01, 2023	52.6	50.5	50.1	2.1
Jan 31, 2023	50.1	49.8	47	0.3
Dec 31, 2022	47	48	48	-1
Nov 30, 2022	48	49	49.2	-1
Oct 31, 2022	49.2	50	50.1	-0.8
Sep 30, 2022	50.1	49.6	49.4	0.5
Aug 31, 2022	49.4	49.2	49	0.2
Jul 31, 2022	49	50.4	50.2	-1.4
May 31, 2022	49.6	48.9	47.4	0.7
Apr 30, 2022	47.4	48	49.5	-0.6
Mar 31, 2022	49.5	49.9	50.2	-0.4
Mar 01, 2022	50.2	49.9	50.1	0.3
Jan 30, 2022	50.1	50	50.3	0.1
Dec 31, 2021	50.3	50	50.1	0.3
Nov 30, 2021	50.1	49.6	49.2	0.5
Oct 31, 2021	49.2	49.7	49.6	-0.5
Sep 30, 2021	49.6	50.1	50.1	-0.5
Aug 31, 2021	50.1	50.2	50.4	-0.1
Jul 31, 2021	50.4	50.8	50.9	-0.4
Jun 30, 2021	50.9	50.8	51	0.1
May 31, 2021	51	51.1	51.1	-0.1
Apr 30, 2021	51.1	51.7	51.9	-0.6
Mar 31, 2021	51.9	51	50.6	0.9
Feb 28, 2021	50.6	51.1	51.3	-0.5
Jan 31, 2021	51.3	51.6	51.9	-0.3
Dec 31, 2020	51.9	52	52.1	-0.1
Nov 30, 2020	52.1	51.5	51.4	0.6
Oct 31, 2020	51.4	51.3	51.5	0.1
Sep 30, 2020	51.5	51.2	51	0.3
Aug 31, 2020	51	51.2	51.1	-0.2
Jul 31, 2020	51.1	50.7	50.9	0.4
Jun 30, 2020	50.9	50.4	50.6	0.5
May 31, 2020	50.6	51	50.8	-0.4
Apr 30, 2020	50.8	51	52	-0.2
Mar 31, 2020	52	45	35.7	7
Feb 29, 2020	35.7	46	50	-10.3
Jan 31, 2020	50	50	50.2
Dec 31, 2019	50.2	50.1	50.2	0.1
Nov 30, 2019	50.2	49.5	49.3	0.7
Oct 31, 2019	49.3	49.8	49.8	-0.5
Sep 30, 2019	49.8	49.5	49.5	0.3
Aug 31, 2019	49.5	49.7	49.7	-0.2
Jul 31, 2019	49.7	49.6	49.4	0.1
Jun 30, 2019	49.4	49.5	49.4	-0.1
May 31, 2019	49.4	49.9	50.1	-0.5
Apr 30, 2019	50.1	50.5	50.5	-0.4
Mar 31, 2019	50.5	49.5	49.2	1
Feb 28, 2019	49.2	49.5	49.5	-0.3
Jan 31, 2019	49.5	49.3	49.4	0.2
Dec 31, 2018	49.4	49.9	50	-0.5
Nov 30, 2018	50	50.2	50.2	-0.2
Oct 31, 2018	50.2	50.6	50.8	-0.4
Sep 30, 2018	50.8	51.2	51.3	-0.4
Aug 31, 2018	51.3	51	51.2	0.3
Jul 31, 2018	51.2	51.3	51.5	-0.1
Jun 30, 2018	51.5	51.6	51.9	-0.1
May 31, 2018	51.9	51.3	51.4	0.6
Apr 30, 2018	51.4	51.3	51.5	0.1
Mar 31, 2018	51.5	50.5	50.3	1
Feb 28, 2018	50.3	51.2	51.3	-0.9
Jan 31, 2018	51.3	51.5	51.6	-0.2
Dec 31, 2017	51.6	1.6	51.8	50
Nov 30, 2017	51.8	51.4	51.6	0.4
Oct 31, 2017	51.6	52	52.4	-0.4
Sep 30, 2017	52.4	51.5	51.7	0.9
Aug 31, 2017	51.7	51.3	51.4	0.4
Jul 31, 2017	51.4	51.6	51.7	-0.2
Jun 30, 2017	51.7	51	51.2	0.7
May 31, 2017	51.2	51	51.2	0.2
Apr 30, 2017	51.2	51.6	51.8	-0.4
Mar 31, 2017	51.8	51.6	51.6	0.2
Mar 01, 2017	51.6	51.1	51.3	0.5
Feb 01, 2017	51.3	51.2	51.4	0.1
Jan 01, 2017	51.4	51.5	51.7	-0.1
Dec 01, 2016	51.7	51	51.2	0.7
Nov 01, 2016	51.2	50.4	50.4	0.8
Oct 01, 2016	50.4	50.4	50.4
Sep 01, 2016	50.4	49.9	49.9	0.5
Aug 01, 2016	49.9	50	50	-0.1
Jul 01, 2016	50	50	50.1
Jun 01, 2016	50.1	50	50.1	0.1
May 01, 2016	50.1	50.4	50.2	-0.3
Apr 01, 2016	50.2	49.3	49	0.9
Mar 01, 2016	49	49.3	49.4	-0.3
Feb 01, 2016	49.4	49.6	49.7	-0.2
Jan 01, 2016	49.7	49.7	49.6
Dec 01, 2015	49.6	49.8	49.8	-0.2
Nov 01, 2015	49.8	50	49.8	-0.2
Oct 01, 2015	49.8	49.6	49.7	0.2
Sep 01, 2015	49.7	50.5	50	-0.8
Aug 01, 2015	50	50.2	50.2	-0.2
Jul 01, 2015	50.2	50.3	50.17	-0.1
Jun 01, 2015	50.2	50.2	50.1